IRENA最新报告：实现气候目标需＂激进行动＂

国际可再生能源机构（IRENA）表示，世界必须采取"激进行动"，在2030年前每年投资5.7万亿美元的私人和公共资金以摆脱化石燃料，确保其造成的全球变暖不超过危险阈值。

 

该机构3月29日发布的一份长达348页的关于全球能源转型状况的报告指出，需要大规模增加太阳能和风能发电，同时提高能源效率，实现交通和供暖系统的电气化，扩大绿氢的使用，并加强碳捕捉。

 

科学家们说，与1990年的水平相比，到2030年前，全球排放量需要下降45%。但最近的数据显示，尽管可再生能源增长迅速，但在能源需求上升和化石燃料使用增加的情况下，总排放量不降反升。

 

2015年，各国在巴黎同意将全球温升限制在2摄氏度（3.6华氏度），最好不超过1.5摄氏度（2.7华氏度），以避免对地球造成潜在的灾难性后果。联合国科学小组最近的一份报告发现，由于现在的温度比工业化前的平均温度高出1.1摄氏度以上，全世界数十亿人已经容易受到气候破坏的影响。

 

La Camera在柏林举行的一次能源会议上说："如果我们不采取行动，不对能源生产和消费方式作出巨大改变，即使2℃的目标也将岌岌可危，更不用说1.5℃目标。"

 

总部设在石油资源丰富的海湾酋长国阿布扎比的IRENA表示，7000亿美元的投资应从钻井、铺设管道和建设废弃发电厂等化石燃料扩张中转移出来。

 

这一要求得到了联合国秘书长古特雷斯的响应，他呼吁停止私营部门对煤电的融资，去年该项融资激增到了历史最高水平。"他说："贷款人需要明白，煤炭和化石燃料是徒劳的投资，将导致数十亿美元的资产搁浅。

 

在能源价格上涨和俄乌战争导致的对供应短缺的担忧中，美国等国家正在加大国内化石燃料的生产，古特雷斯敦促各国政府不要拖延化石能源转型进程。

 

他说："当前的危机表明，我们必须加快而不是放慢向可再生能源的转型，这是实现能源安全的唯一正确途径。"

 

这种呼吁得到了不同的回应。

 

2022年3月在迪拜举行的一个论坛上，主要石油生产国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的能源部长，以及OPEC石油卡特尔的秘书长，坚持认为化石燃料是能源转型的一部分，数千亿美元的油气投资必不可少。

 

虽然这两个海湾国家已承诺将其境内的排放量减少到零，但他们声称其所在国的桶油碳密度比在其他地方开采时低，并且他们没有减产计划。OPEC预计，未来几十年将需要更多的石油，这主要是由于亚洲的人口激增。

 

即使是德国，在寻求于2045年前实现碳中和并在最近宣布了一系列进一步促进可再生能源的新措施时，也为满足能源需求而继续开采煤炭。德公用事业公司莱茵集团刚刚赢得了一个法庭案件，允许其推平德国西部村庄Luetzerath的一个农场，为附近褐煤矿的扩建做准备。

 

然而，环境智库Ember在3月发表的另一份报告发现，太阳能和风能正在取得长足进步。2021年，它们首次占到全球发电量的10%，现在至少有50个国家达到了这一里程碑的数字，其中包括世界上最大的五个经济体。

 

去年太阳能和风能发电比例首次达到两位数的七个国家包括中国、日本和越南。

 

Ember的分析师Dave Jones在谈到中国的可再生能源推广时说："中国的风能和太阳能的数据绝对是疯狂的。不过，为满足其巨大的能源需求，中国也扩大了煤炭和核能的使用。

 

2021年，丹麦在可再生能源排行榜上名列前茅，其一半以上的电力来源于风能和太阳能，而越南、荷兰和澳大利亚也在两年时间内将其需求的近十分之一从化石燃料转为可再生能源。

 

根据Ember的计算，为了实现巴黎协定的1.5℃目标，到2030年，风能和太阳能发电必须继续以每年五分之一的速度增长，即增长基数稳定在20%。

 

英语原文

 

Energy agency: ‘Radical action’ needed to hit climate goals

 

BERLIN (AP) — The world must take “radical action” by investing $5.7 trillion in private and public money each year through 2030 to shift away from fossil fuels and ensure the planetary warming they cause doesn’t pass dangerous thresholds, the International Renewable Energy Agency says.

 

In a 348-page report published Tuesday on the state of the global energy transition, the agency said a massive increase in solar and wind power generation is needed, along with improved energy efficiency, electrification of transport and heating systems, expanded use of hydrogen made with renewables and greater efforts to capture carbon emissions.

 

cientists say global emissions need to drop 45% by the end of this decade compared to 1990 levels. But recent data show that despite rapid growth in renewable energy, total emissions are going up, not down amid rising energy demand and the expansion of fossil fuel use.

 

Countries agreed seven years ago in Paris to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), ideally no more than 1.5C (2.7F), to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for the planet. With temperatures now more than 1.1 degrees C above the pre-industrial average, a recent report by a U.N. science panel found that billions around the world are already vulnerable to climate disruption.

 

La Camera told an energy conference in Berlin that “not only the 1.5C, the 2C goal is really in danger if we don’t act and don’t make a dramatic change in the way we produce and consume energy.”

 

IRENA, which is based in the oil-rich Gulf emirate of Abu Dhabi, said investments of $700 billion should be diverted away from fossil fuel expansion such as drilling wells, laying pipelines and building power plants that can’t be used anymore.

 

This demand was echoed by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who called for an end to private sector financing for coal power, which surged to record highs last year.

 

“Lenders need to recognize that coal and fossil fuels are futile investments that will lead to billions of dollars in stranded assets,” he said.

 

With countries such as the United States ramping up domestic fossil fuel production amid energy price hikes and fears of supply shortages because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Guterres urged governments not to delay the shift away from fossil fuels.

 

“The current crisis shows that we must accelerate, not slow, the renewable energy transition,” he said. “This is the only true path to energy security.”

 

Such calls have met with mixed results.

 

At a forum in Dubai this week, energy ministers of major oil producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the secretary general of the OPEC oil cartel, insisted that fossil fuels are part of the energy transition and hundreds of billions of dollars in oil and gas investments are still needed.

 

While the two Gulf countries have pledged to reduce emissions within their borders to net zero, they tout their barrels of oil as less carbon-intensive than those extracted elsewhere and have no plans to scale back production. OPEC expects more oil will be needed in the coming decades, mainly due to a population boom in Asia.

 

Even Germany, which seeks to become carbon neutral by 2045 and recently announced a raft of new measures to further boost renewable power, continues to mine coal for energy needs. Utility company RWE this week won a court case allowing it to bulldoze a farm in the western German village of Luetzerath in preparation for the expansion of a nearby lignite mine.

 

Yet solar and wind are making great strides, a separate report published this week by the environmental think tank Ember found. For the first time they accounted for 10% of electricity generated globally in 2021, a milestone now reached by at least 50 countries including the world’s top five economies.

 

Among the seven nations that generated a double-digit percentage of their electricity from solar and wind for the first time last year were China, Japan and Vietnam.

 

“The numbers coming out of China are absolutely insane for both wind and solar,” Ember analyst Dave Jones said of the country’s renewables rollout. Still, to meet its voracious energy demand, China also expanded the use of coal and nuclear."

 

Denmark topped the renewables charts in 2021, getting more than half of its electricity from wind and solar alone, while three countries, Vietnam, the Netherlands and Australia, switched almost a tenth of their demand from fossil fuels to renewables in the space of two years.

 

Ember calculated that to help meet the Paris accord’s 1.5C-goal, wind and solar generation must continue to grow by an ambitious one-fifth each year through 2030, meaning 20% of an ever-increasing base.

 

本文于2022年3月30日发表于美联社网站，作者Frank Jordans。题目为编者所加。