研究表明火电厂须尽早关闭才能实现气候目标

图片说明：北海道最大的火力发电厂·苫东厚真火力发电厂。来源：朝日新闻

 

根据欧洲动态（Euractiv）的合作伙伴——《环境杂志》（le Journal de l’environnement）发布的报告显示，燃煤和燃气电厂必须比正常的35至40年寿命提前10至30年关闭，才能实现气候目标。

Coal and gas-fired power plants would have to shut down 10 to 30 years sooner than their usual 35 to 40-year lifespan so that climate targets can be met, a study reveals. EURACTIV’s partner le Journal de l’environnement reports.

 

所有气候情景的结论都是一致的：为了保持全球温升低于工业化前水平 2°C甚至是1.5°C的目标，为了在本世纪中叶实现碳中和，世界温室气体排放量必须迅速下降。

All climate scenarios are consistent: to stay below the target of +2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, or even +1.5°C, the world’s greenhouse gas emissions will have to drop rapidly in order to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century.

 

尽管字面上看起来很简单，但现实却大不相同。尤其是因为燃煤和燃气电厂的存在——它们的平均寿命分别为39年和36年。这意味着，除非我们越来越依赖理论上的负排放，否则我们必须考虑尽早关闭它们。

While things look simple on paper, the reality is significantly different. Not least because of the existence of coal-fired and gas-fired power plants, which have an average lifespan of 39 and 36 years respectively. This means that, unless we increasingly rely on hypothetical negative emissions, we must consider shutting them down early.

 

加州大学欧文分校地球科学系的史蒂文·戴维斯小组在《环境研究通讯》上发表的一项研究分析了全球火力发电厂机群，计算出本世纪超过 1.5°C、 2°C和 3°C的超标排放量。

In a study published in the scientific journal known as Environmental Research Letters, Steven Davis’ team from the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of California (Irvine) analysed the global fleet of thermal power plants, calculating the excess emissions over climate targets of +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C over the century.

 

根据他们的发现，这些发电厂必须在报废时间之前提前停止运行10至30年。

According to their findings, these power plants will have to cease operating between 10 and 30 years before they are due to be decommissioned.