全球碳捕获能力2030年前将激增10倍以上

据俄罗斯油气网4月27日奥斯陆报道，挪威能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的最新研究结果显示，由于能源转型的加快，到2030年前，全球碳捕获、利用和储存（CCUS）项目有望每年从大气中捕获5.5亿吨以上的二氧化碳。  

 

由于脱碳的步伐加快，这一产能增长比目前每年捕获的4500万吨二氧化碳增加了10倍以上。

 

项目公告数在2021年出现激增，目前的管道包含200多个开发项目，是目前全球运营项目的3倍多。  

 

根据目前的发展和预期的规模经济，到2030年前，CCUS项目的成本预计将在每吨捕获的二氧化碳75～100美元之间，这意味着到2030年前，该领域的总市场价值每年可能达到550亿美元。

 

然而，即便如此，总碳捕获能力仍将远远低于限制全球气候变暖所需的水平，无法满足Rystad提出的1.6°C气候情景或国际能源署提出的净零情景。

 

这两种情景都需要到2050年前捕获近80亿吨二氧化碳，比2030年前预计的5.5亿吨/年大幅增加。

 

如果世界要实现这些目标，从2030年起就需要积极投资和部署CCUS技术。

 

由于支持性政策和激励措施，到2030年前，欧洲和北美将主导CCUS市场，贡献4.5亿吨/年的二氧化碳捕获能力，占全球预计总捕获量5.5亿吨/年的80%。  

 

预计到2030年前，欧洲的二氧化碳年捕获能力将达到2.22亿吨，比目前的700万吨大幅跃升。

 

在北美，加拿大最近在今年的预算中宣布了一项税收抵免计划，50%的税收抵免用于传统捕获技术，37.5%的税收抵免用于CCUS运输和储存设备。这将显著改善加拿大CCUS项目的经济效益，接近该国目前每吨二氧化碳排放的平均成本30美元。

 

在美国，如果“重建更好未来”法案获得参议院通过，根据提供的税收抵免将从每吨二氧化碳50美元增加到85美元。

 

经济和财政限制是CCUS项目未能按计划进行的主要原因，但越来越多的国家开始认识到向此类项目提供支持的重要性。  

 

李峻 编译自 俄罗斯油气网

 

原文如下：

 

Rystad Energy: Carbon capture capacity poised to surge more than 10 times by 2030

 

As the energy transition quickens, global carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects are on track to pull more than 550 million tonnes of CO2 out of the atmosphere every year by 2030, Rystad Energy research shows. 

 

This capacity growth represents a more than tenfold increase over today’s 45 million tonnes per annum (tpa) of CO2captured, as the drive to decarbonize gathers pace.

 

Project announcements surged in 2021, with the current pipeline containing more than 200 developments, 3 times more than are currently in operation globally. 

 

Based on learnings from current developments and expected economies of scale, CCUS project cost is anticipated to range between $75-$100 per tonne of CO2 captured by 2030, meaning the total market value of the sector could reach $55 billion annually by 2030.

 

However, even with this rise, total carbon capture capacity could fall far short of the levels needed to limit global warming to meet Rystad Energy’s 1.6°C climate scenario or the IEA net-zero scenario. 

 

Both scenarios require carbon capture of close to 8 gigatonnes of CO2 by 2050, a significant ramp up from the 550 million tpa predicted by 2030. 

 

If the world is to meet these targets, aggressive investment and deployment of CCUS technology will be required from 2030 onwards.

 

As a result of supportive policies and incentives, Europe and North America will dominate the CCUS market by 2030, contributing 450 million tpa of capture capacity, more than 80% of the projected global total of 550 million tpa.

 

European capacity is projected to hit 222 million tpa by 2030, a sizeable jump from the 7 million tpa of CO2 captured today. 

 

In North America, Canada recently announced a tax credit scheme in this year’s budget, 50% for traditional capture technology and a 37.5% credit for CCUS transportation and storage equipment. 

 

This will significantly improve CCUS economics for projects in Canada, coming closer to the nation’s current average cost of emitting CO2 of $30 per tonne. 

 

In the US, the tax credit provided under Section 45Q will increase from $50 to $85 per tonne of CO2 if the Build Back Better bill is passed by the Senate. 

 

Economic and financial constraints are the main reason for CCUS projects not moving ahead as planned, but more countries are starting to see the importance of providing support to such projects.